Washington —The Bureau of Reclamation announced winners of the Water Supply Forecast Rodeo, a prize competition initiated to spur innovation and advancements in methods for seasonal water supply forecasts.
Reclamation offered a total prize pool of $500,000 across multiple stages. Participants in the competition worked individually or on teams to develop water supply forecast models to predict seasonal runoff volumes at 26 sites across the Western U.S., while also characterizing forecast uncertainty and offering insights into forecasted conditions.
The final stage of the competition awarded $275,000 to five winners::
Matthew Aeschbacher: First place overall for a $100,000 prize.
Roman Chernenko and Vitaly Bondar: Second place overall for a $75,000 prize.
Rasyid Ridha: Third place overall for a $50,000 prize.
Christoph Molnar: Fourth place overall for a $30,000 prize.
Piotr Roginski: Fifth place overall for a $20,000 prize.
The competition included two earlier prize stages, the hindcast and forecast stages. In the hindcast stage, solvers demonstrated skill in predicting past conditions. In the forecast stage, solvers predicted water supply during the winter and spring of 2024. Water supply forecasts are crucial for effective water resource management in the Western U.S. Improved forecast accuracy will help water managers mitigate the impacts of drought, improve hydropower generation, and meet environmental targets.
Reclamation partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA Tournament Lab, and DrivenData for this competition. To learn more about this competition, winners, and projects, please visit https://www.drivendata.org/competitions/group/reclamation-water-supply-forecast/
